More People Are Moving Into High-Drought Areas

There’s a picture of the brave people who go into clear danger, and everyone should be thankful for police, fire, and other emergency workers. But how do you classify many who go into areas that are in fundamental ways dangerous, like ongoing droughts? Like consumers.

A Redfin analysis says that in many areas experiencing heavy levels of drought, more people are moving in than out, with “74% of U.S. metros with more than half of homes facing intense drought saw more people move in than out this year.” Those homes, in 34 out of 129 analyzed metros, represent about $17 trillion in collective value, or a 42% jump from a year ago.

And in 13 metro areas, 100% of homes experienced intense drought. They include Sacramento, Austin, and Las Vegas. But of that baker’s dozen, all but two saw a net influx of people.

The figures have been clear, that there’s a demographic shift in the country, with people moving to the Sun Belt and West and out of eastern coastal areas and areas of the Midwest. They look for jobs and also a less expensive lifestyle.

Now, get to the brief methodology and you may have questions. “This is according to a Redfin analysis of roughly two million Redfin.com users who searched for homes across more than 100 metro areas in the second quarter, excluding searches unlikely to precede an actual relocation or home purchase,” the company wrote. “We used data from the U.S. Drought Monitor to calculate the share of homes in each metro that experienced severe, extreme or exceptional drought (referred to as “intense” drought in this report) during the second week of August 2022.”

However, a search for a home may not mean someone is moving to that location. On Twitter, there’s now a regular activity where people look for odd properties around the country, but they certainly have no intention of moving into a multi-million-dollar home.

Also, as Redfin pointed out, part of the growth in property value owed to the increasing prices of houses. But it’s also location, location, location. “Los Angeles, San Jose and New York—three of the most expensive housing markets in the country—were among the metros with the largest number of homes facing intense drought in mid-August,” Redfin wrote. Dallas, San Antonio and Sacramento, Sun Belt metros that have seen home values soar due to an influx of new residents, were also in the top 10.

According to Redfin Economist Sebastian Sandoval-Olascoaga, while people do consider climate change when moving, other things like affordability can take precedence. Also, homeowners may feel they can take greater chances because drought doesn’t seem as much of a danger.