If the chart of the weekly lumber futures price for the past two years was an EKG, the patient would be in need of a defibrillator, stat.
Lumber futures closed Monday at $410.80 per thousand board feet—which is back to where they started when the pandemic began. The cost of two-by-fours has plunged more than 70% from this year's peak of more than $1,400 per 1K of board feet in March.
The collapse of lumber prices—actually the second collapse in two years—is seen as a leading indicator of a sharp slowdown in construction across the US, perhaps a harbinger of a recession to come. It's also a solid sign that the Fed's campaign of 75 bps rate increases is beginning to crimp inflation.
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