Metros Who Lost More People During the Pandemic Had This In Common

Metros with a smaller share of homeowners saw more outbound migration over the pandemic, according to a recent analysis from Placer.ai.

The firm’s analysts found that pre-COVID, urban centers with a higher share of renter-occupied households like New York City (48.2%) and Los Angeles (51.4%) were already experiencing higher than average outbound migration (-0.13% and -0.10%, respectively), while cities with lower shares of renter-occupied households like Boise posted positive migration growth of 0.06% during the same period.

But after COVID, net migration out of New York and Los Angeles dropped to 0.20% and 0.15%, respectively, while the net migration into Boise increased to 0.7%, said Placer.ai’s Ben Witten.

“The increase in outbound migration from these cities suggests that many of those who relocated over the pandemic were renters, who likely had an easier time giving up their lease than homeowners who needed to sell their home in order to move away,” he writes in a new analysis.

In addition, Witten says the type of real estate built in a metro also correlates with migration patterns: “when multifamily housing units form a larger share of the total new construction across a metro area, net migration tends to be negative – and, like with the other correlations identified here, this relationship has gotten stronger post-COVID,” he notes. “Conversely, when single-family homes make up a larger share of new construction in a metro area, net migration into the area tends to rise.”

In addition, higher inbound migration is correlated with a lower cost of doing business, and the other way around. 

“Local officials who want to attract inbound migration can zone more single-family homes, implement business-friendly policies, develop family and adult-friendly recreational venues, and encourage home ownership,” Witten says.