Too often when it comes to economics and finance, previous trends—correlations, to be specific, like that between yield curve inversions and eventually recessions—come to be treated as inviolate natural law. That can lead to significant risk and strategic mistakes.

When there’s a yield curve inversion, with interest rates on shorter-term bonds being higher than on longer-term, frequently, although always, there’s eventually a recession within a year or so. The explanation is that collectively investors as the “market” perceive that the economy will slow over the longer run, with the Fed lowering short-term rates to prevent a recession. That means when bonds come to maturity, rates will be lower, meaning they won’t make as much by reinvesting, so they demand higher interest rates on short-term bonds to make up the difference.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Unlimited access to GlobeSt and other free ALM publications
  • Access to 15 years of GlobeSt archives
  • Your choice of GlobeSt digital newsletters and over 70 others from popular sister publications
  • 1 free article* every 30 days across the ALM subscription network
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM events and publications

*May exclude premium content
Already have an account?

Erik Sherman

 

GlobeSt

Join GlobeSt

Don't miss crucial news and insights you need to make informed commercial real estate decisions. Join GlobeSt.com now!

  • Free unlimited access to GlobeSt.com's trusted and independent team of experts who provide commercial real estate owners, investors, developers, brokers and finance professionals with comprehensive coverage, analysis and best practices necessary to innovate and build business.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and GlobeSt events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including ThinkAdvisor.com and Law.com.

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join GlobeSt

Copyright © 2023 ALM Global, LLC. All Rights Reserved.