The question isn't whether the economy in 2023 will be bad, according to the 2023 CRE outlook from Aegon Asset Management. That, they argue, is largely a given. The question is how weak. The results of expert forecaster votes aren't encouraging.
"The Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of 50 forecasters, published November 11, 2022, reported that only 22% of forecasters expected a 'soft landing' while 78% expected recession in 2023," and with a 0.2% consensus GDP growth, Aegon wrote.
So far, the impact on commercial real estate hasn't been on cap rates — which one might expect with higher interest rates that reduce NOI — but on transaction volume.
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