An economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco thinks he’s found a new signifier of a coming recession that could offer a timelier indication than other techniques in common use.

The US is deep in what you could call the Recession Follies — one of those times when the economy is slowing. People wonder if the result will be a gentle landing or plow-into-the-ground recession. That’s why there is so much churning over signs, like Treasury yield curve inversions, as though economists were an ancient Greece and poking through a pile of bird entrails.

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