Watching experts trying to follow financial markets and explain what their movements mean sometimes seems like people slipping on an icy sidewalk in winter, waving their arms about as they try to maintain their balance.

That dynamic came into play last week with reports of a Treasury bond market rally that supposedly began to reduce the negative split between shorter-term and longer-term bonds. The negative split, which creates inverted yield curves (when short-term yields exceed those of longer-term bonds), supposedly began to recede, which should be a sign that perhaps a recession might not happen.

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Erik Sherman

GlobeSt

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