It takes a degree of desperation for an industry to hope for a recession as a way out of a business jam. That is where at least some of the office market currently stands. With occupancy rates down — Deloitte Consulting has told GlobeSt.com that nationwide they are 40% to 45%, compared to daily rates of 61% to 65% before the pandemic — owners and operators see a potential for the foundation of their businesses to crack.

The hope many have expressed is that a recession would result in large numbers of layoffs and reductions. The expected result would be employers gain significant leverage over employees, who would then return to offices en masse from fear of job loss.

Significant job losses typically accompany recessions, as, among other sources, research at the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland shows. Every time there is a recession, there is a significant spike in the unemployment rate. Conversely, every time the unemployment rate undergoes a substantial increase, there is a recession.