Economist: The US Will Be in Recession in H1

SAN DIEGO—The current uncertainty in the economy and market is higher now than it was at the height of the pandemic, according to Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Industry Technology, Mortgage Bankers Association. These uncertainties, he told the audience during the MBA CREF 23 conference and expo on Monday, range from geopolitical uncertainties to policy uncertainty and of course, interest rate policy. “Expect that this volatility will come down once the Fed reaches their peak rate, but it is a big feature of the market right now,” he said. “Our forecast is that the US will be in a recession during the first half of this year.”

The reason: “The delayed impact of rate hikes will work their way through the economy in the coming months.” Meanwhile, the currently strong job market will diminish with the unemployment rate expected to rise, he added.