With the announcement of January’s CPI numbers — 0.5% increase in January after a 0.1% increase in December, higher than predicted. That made a 12-month 6.4% inflation rate, which was still down from 6.5% in December, although over expectations. A lot of people are trying to understand where things are. A lot of things are moving at the same time.

There are the hawkish. “So much for immaculate disinflation,” wrote Steven Blitz, managing director of global macro and chief US economist at TS Lombard. “January CPI data make clear that inflation is not dropping to 2% without a recession raising unemployment above 4.5% and this underscores my long-held view that the Fed erred by downshifting hikes.”

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Erik Sherman


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