This Firm Believes CRE Is Headed for a Hard Landing

Experts have spilled uncounted words on the potential of a recession and whether the Federal Reserve could help steer the economy in for a soft landing. If Stifel’s investment banking firm Keefe, Bruyette & Woods (KBW) is right, CRE overall is about to face a massive readjustment, with values down by 10% to 20% and volumes to fall by 30% to 40%.

It gets worse for office owners and investors, who had best put up their tray tables and brace themselves against the seat ahead of them, because an extremely rough landing is on its way. KBW’s estimations on office are a 30% or more drop in values with peak-to-trough declines that could top 20% to 30%. That is an average number. Some might do better, others the opposite. And the US is only 30% to 50% into the correction. For comparison, “Volumes fell 50% annually in the GFC, -10% in 2000, and -25-45% in 1991-92. Peak-to-trough, CRE values fell 40% in the GFC and 25-30% in the early 1990s.”