The Last Time CRE Returns Were This Negative It Was the GFC

Overall CRE returns declined by 3.5% in the last quarter of 2022, taking them into negative territory for the first time since the onset of the pandemic. 

SitusAMC’s Val Trends Report for Q4 2022 revealed that NCREIF Property Index overall CRE total returns fell by over 400 bps. Total returns were the lowest since the global financial crisis, as was capital appreciation. Income returns were the second lowest in history, just 2 bp above the previous quarter’s record low. One-year trailing total returns were 5.5%, down over 10.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and about 370 bps below the long-term average (LTA).