Green Street's latest outlook for US commercial property isn't completely glum, but it's far from a happy place, or a clear one.

It starts with the overall national economic climate. As the firm wrote, "A soft landing for the U.S. economy was expected; life got in the way." Inflation hasn't fallen the way the Federal Reserve expected and there is high uncertainty of what will happen. A forecast for where GDP would go three weeks ago is "likely too rosy." The banking crisis is having a negative impact and a greater decline in GDP and in employment are likely, they say. But "investors are clearly not freaking out," which should help stabilize the situation. The firm still expects a soft landing.

Meanwhile pricing continues to drop following their peak a year ago. Office prices are down 13% since Green Street's early December 2022 sector report and at least 25% since the peak. A number of other property types have also seen a decline in prices: healthcare, multifamily, manufactured homes, life science, and strip center retail, all under 5% off. Balancing that are a few types seeing similarly modest changes but in the other direction. Mall, cold storage, industrial, tower, lodging, and self-storage were up a bit.

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