Green Street’s latest outlook for US commercial property isn’t completely glum, but it’s far from a happy place, or a clear one.
It starts with the overall national economic climate. As the firm wrote, “A soft landing for the U.S. economy was expected; life got in the way.” Inflation hasn’t fallen the way the Federal Reserve expected and there is high uncertainty of what will happen. A forecast for where GDP would go three weeks ago is “likely too rosy.” The banking crisis is having a negative impact and a greater decline in GDP and in employment are likely, they say. But “investors are clearly not freaking out,” which should help stabilize the situation. The firm still expects a soft landing.