The economic projections from the Federal Reserve and the Federal Reserve Bank presidents have taken a turn downward and it's looking like a tacit admission of recession without using the R-word.

In December, the Fed and its bank presidents, "under their individual assumptions of projected appropriate monetary policy," expected a median 0.5% change in real GDP (beyond inflation) in 2022, 2023, up to 1.6% in 2024, and 1.8% in 2025. The September projections were 0.2% in 2022, 1.2% in 2023, 1.7% in 2024, and 1.8% in 2025. In each, "in the longer run," the number was 1.8%.

Unemployment? September's projection was 3.8% in 2022, 4.4% in 2023 and 2024, and then 4.3% in in 2025 with the longer run number of 4.0%. The December projection kept the long run but went with 3.7% in 2022, 4.6% in 2023 and 2024, then edging down to 4.5% in 2025.