The first quarter of 2023 was a disappointment by broad economic measures. The consensus 2% real GDP growth expected by economists polled by Dow Jones instead was 1.1%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

That’s also the second consecutive quarter of declining growth, from 3.2% in the third quarter of 2022, to 2.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. However, the slowing is not the same as a contraction. According to the rough rule of thumb, a recession likely hasn’t started as of yet. Then again, the picture going forward is far from clear.

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Erik Sherman

 

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