The first quarter of 2023 was a disappointment by broad economic measures. The consensus 2% real GDP growth expected by economists polled by Dow Jones instead was 1.1%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

That's also the second consecutive quarter of declining growth, from 3.2% in the third quarter of 2022, to 2.6% in the fourth quarter of last year. However, the slowing is not the same as a contraction. According to the rough rule of thumb, a recession likely hasn't started as of yet. Then again, the picture going forward is far from clear.

The devil, or maybe the angel, is in the details. On the positive side was personal consumption expenditures, which drive much of GDP. That went from the 1.0% of last year's Q4 to 3.7% in Q1 of 2023 (though remember that this is the first estimate; all the first quarter numbers could change).