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Analysis

Parsing the 0.4% Increase in Retail Sales

The increase was below consensus; however, core readings showed strong increases.

Advanced retail sales estimates for April came out, showing a 0.4% increase over March. It was a bit of a good, bad, and unknown results.

The unknown part comes from the common problem with sales data from the Census Bureau. The statistical analysis uses a 90% confidence interval, an unusually broad one that happens to cross the zero line. As the Census states, “There is insufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.”

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Erik Sherman

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