And although lenders have gotten considerably stricter in their underwriting, it does appear that at least some are willing to be flexible on the other end of the spectrum when borrowers return to ask for flexibility.

For example, Blackstone recently negotiated a Chicago office loan that was in special servicing. Tishman Speyer recently got a one-year extension with additional a one-year extension option for a $485M CMBS loan that had gone into special servicing. Backing the loan was 300 Park Avenue, a 26-story building dating to 1955. New York-based RFR Realty negotiated a one-year extension, also with a one-year extension option, of a $1B debt package, including a $783M CMBS loan, on the Seagram Building, 375 Park Ave., in a modified package that includes an infusion of equity from RFR.

Green Street noted in May that by the close of 2023, approximately $25.3 billion of office CMBS loans will have been set to mature across 245 loans with a total property count of 602. The majority will face "significant refinancing challenges, though of that number, $16 billion worth have extension options."

The overall weighted average shortfall of the loans was 35% of the current balance and, equally a problem, the loan-to-value was about 94%, which is enormously leveraged. Loans without extension options "may struggle to refinance and potentially face maturity default."

Ironically, urban office might have some advantages over suburban. "Within office, urban properties outperformed suburban and medical office in terms of the refi percentage, notwithstanding the former's acute exposure to remote work," Fitch Ratings noted in May.

Other property types also face refi challenges according to Fitch. "Most retail formats, not just malls, face greater refi risk than the office sector average. Weak business transient travel continues to challenge urban, full-service hotels. Lastly, although multifamily had below-average risk, the smaller conduit subset showed above-average refi risk that exceeded most office types," it wrote.