Home Price Growth Regains Its Momentum
Six consecutive monthly gains drove prices up 5% from last February.
Over the last year, from July 2022 to July of this year, home prices rose nationally by 2.5%. On a month-over-month basis, the housing prices increased by 0.4% this past July according to CoreLogic. And they’re expected to go up again on a month-over-month basis by 0.4% in the last two months, from July 2023 to August 2023, and on a YoY basis by 3.5% from July 2023 to next year, July 2024, according to the CoreLogic HPI Forecast.
The reacceleration reflects six consecutive monthly gains, which drove prices about 5% higher than they were this past February, when they hit bottom. Some states saw declines but those were in the West and they may be short-lived. Due to inventory shortages, buyers may send prices back up again. In fact, CoreLogic projects that all states that experienced YoY losses in July will post gains by October, less than a month away from now.
“Annual home price growth regained momentum in July, which mostly reflects strong appreciation from earlier this year. That said, high mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages,” according to Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic. “In other words,” she added, “home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations.”
Where did prices increase most and also decline? Nationally, they rose by 2.5%% YoY in July. States with the highest increase YoY were Vermont at 8.5% and New Hampshire and New Jersey, each at 7.3%. However, some states saw declines, including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.
The CoreLogic Market Risk indicator, a monthly update of the overall health of housing markets nationwide, predicts that certain areas are at higher risks than others. These include Provo-Orem, Utah, at a very high risk of 70%-plus probability of a decline in home prices over the next 12 months. Spokane-Spokane Valley, Wash., Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla., North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, Fla., and Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla., also at a very high risk for price declines.