Search
 
Analysis

The 'Recession Is Coming' Drumbeat Sounds Louder

Avoiding a government shutdown was positive, but there are still many events and trends that suggest a recession could be in the offing.

Such high-profile economists as Janet Yellen, Paul Krugman, and Larry Summers have been saying that a so-called soft landing — reduction of inflation without a recession — seemed more certain. Inflation was slowing, consumers kept spending more, and the job market continued strong.

But over the last few weeks, with a variety of data points on consumers and some worrying events that have queued up to raise the question of whether the confidence is well placed. As Bloomberg wrote, even with a government shutdown averted — for now, that is, in a fragile temporary compromise that could break down by just before Thanksgiving — there is the UAW strike expanding to new targets, and the restart of student loan payments. In the worst case, those three factors alone could cut a 100 basis points off Q4 GDP.

Want to continue reading?
Become a Free ALM Digital Reader.

Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Unlimited access to GlobeSt and other free ALM publications
  • Access to 15 years of GlobeSt archives
  • Your choice of GlobeSt digital newsletters and over 70 others from popular sister publications
  • 1 free article* every 30 days across the ALM subscription network
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM events and publications

*May exclude premium content
Already have an account?

NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2023 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.

Erik Sherman

 

Recommended Stories

GlobeSt. Healthcare Real Estate 2023Event

Join the industry's top owners, investors, developers, brokers and financiers for the real estate healthcare event of the year!

Get More Information
 

GlobeSt Net Lease Spring 2024Event

This conference brings together the industry's most influential & knowledgeable real estate executives from the net lease sector.

Get More Information
 

GlobeSt Net Lease Spring 2024Event

This conference brings together the industry's most influential & knowledgeable real estate executives from the net lease sector.

Get More Information
 

GlobeSt

Join GlobeSt

Don't miss crucial news and insights you need to make informed commercial real estate decisions. Join GlobeSt.com now!

  • Free unlimited access to GlobeSt.com's trusted and independent team of experts who provide commercial real estate owners, investors, developers, brokers and finance professionals with comprehensive coverage, analysis and best practices necessary to innovate and build business.
  • Exclusive discounts on ALM and GlobeSt events.
  • Access to other award-winning ALM websites including ThinkAdvisor.com and Law.com.

Already have an account? Sign In Now
Join GlobeSt

Copyright © 2023 ALM Global, LLC. All Rights Reserved.