The Odds Are Stacked Against Maturities Refinancing

As lenders cut back, it gets harder to see how the industry works through its problems.

Almost any problem can be solved if there’s a realistic plan and the necessary materials are at hand. But miss what you need for the repair and there’s only so far that you can go. That’s a problem facing commercial real estate right now. There is an “historic volume of mortgage maturities,” as a recent Trepp analysis of Federal Reserve Flow of Funds data showed: $2.78 trillion in commercial loans coming due by 2027.

But will there be enough money to keep the bulk out of trouble? Up until Wednesday, the 10-year yields were moving tentatively toward 5% and have been at levels not seen since 2007. The higher Treasury yields go, the harder it is to argue for riskier investments without a lot of extra return. Shorter-term Treasury yields are even higher.

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Erik Sherman

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