There will be a $2.6T wave of maturing CMBS washing over the U.S. commercial real estate industry between now and 2039, with the largest annual tranche of loans coming due cresting in 2024 at an estimated $500B, according to KBRA projections.
In Los Angeles and Orange County, an estimated $21B in debt back by commercial real estate is scheduled to mature in 2024, which is a bit less than the $30B that came due last year in those two markets, according to Morningstar Credit Analytics data. The debt coming due is tied to 400 properties, and nearly $3B has been paid off.
Nearly 60% of the balance coming due in 2024 already is in distress, according to Morningstar. These loans either are already in special servicing or are on watch lists, with at least $250M worth of property already delinquent.
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