The probability of a recession has dropped below 50%, according to a survey by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) of 57 members. The outlook reflects the fourth quarter of 2023 and the near-term future.
About 91% of the respondents give the chance of a recession at 50% or less. This is part of an ongoing development of other economists walking back recession expectations.
"The January 2024 Business Conditions Survey results suggest broad improvement, with respondents reporting rising sales, profit margins, and capital spending, while supply chains are improving," said NABE President Ellen Zentner, chief U.S. economist, Morgan Stanley, in prepared remarks.
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