DoubleLine in a recent report wrote, "As the broader market has turned to pricing in the 'when,' not the 'if,' of future cuts to the federal funds rate, investor sentiment has improved with respect to CRE. We expect property transactions to increase, helping to provide clarity on CRE valuations."

While that read as a general statement about CRE, it wasn't, exactly. Instead, it was about CRE outside of the "unique convergence of cyclical and secular headwinds confronting part of the office market." Because generally CRE fundamentals are good.

Start with the good news in multifamily. In some areas, there is enough new inventory hitting markets to affect pricing and occupancy, but nationally the property type "continues to benefit from a positive long-term supply-demand imbalance driven by aggregate undersupply of housing combined with poor single-family home affordability." Problems with refinancing and loan defaults are mostly an issue of timing, with purchases from 2021 through the first half of 2022, when high prices and low cap rates where possible because of a near-zero interest rate environment. New construction and completions are slowing; surplus supply will be absorbed by 2025 and 2026.