The latest triple net lease (NNN) market analysis from Chris Lomuto at Northmarq has the stirrings of good news — although, so early on, there are no certain redemptive trends yet.
First, average closing cap rates were lower in January, "although 5 to 10 basis points of monthly volatility either way seems to be roughly typical this cycle," Lomuto wrote. Still, lower cap rates, if they continue, could mean growing valuations. That wouldn't just be good for sellers but would start some price discovery that might also mean better lending conditions at some point.
But, as he also wrote, "What we have not seen yet, at least on this side of the V [growing out of the downturn and bottom] are two consecutive months of lower cap rates." He said that this might be an indicator of an inflection point.
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