Since June 2022, the yield curve — the difference between has been inverted. Not intermittently, but continuously. Non-stop. To economists, that was like a smoke detector so high off the floor that no one could pull out the battery. (Not that they should.)

It’s supposed to be a classic indicator of a recession that should arrive between 12 and 24 months. It’s only been wrong once since 1955. Well, until now. The economy could turn upside down in the next few months, but that currently doesn’t seem likely.


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Erik Sherman

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