Labor Dept. Makes Major Retroactive Revision to City Job Numbers

Nothing like seeing the higher job numbers rolling in from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. You want to know that people have work, and where it’s growing most, so you can plan for where to invest.

Except, the hopes of yesterday can get dashed today. As has happened.

“The annual benchmark revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reduced employment levels in almost half of the top 150 markets RealPage tracks in 2023,” the firm wrote. “December’s top 10 job gain markets totaled 698,100 new jobs pre-revision but only 504,700 after, a reduction of almost 28%.”

The reason why is the nature of statistical sampling, as the BLS explains. The agency performs monthly surveys of about 560,000 worksites. “In the survey sample, businesses report the total number of people who worked or received pay during the pay period that includes the 12th of the month.”

But as happens so often in life, people and organizations often miss deadlines. “Although BLS uses a variety of methods to gather these reports as quickly as possible, many businesses do not have their payroll data ready to report by the scheduled date that BLS initially releases the data. In 2012, for example, the average collection rate at the time of the initial release was 73.1 percent.” They have to act at that point as though that’s all the data they’ll get.

When the BLS calculates job changes, they do so based on the data they have in hand at that point. They continue to collect more data. In 2012, by the third month they had 73.1%. As more data comes in, they revise the estimates.

“After revisions, three of last month’s top 10 would not have made the list (Los Angeles, Atlanta and Boston),” RealPage wrote. “Houston would have topped the list instead of Dallas and Washington, DC, Orlando and Austin would have been in the top 10.”

“Major markets with employment declines are Memphis, Portland, OR, New Orleans, Milwaukee, San Francisco, Baltimore, Detroit, San Jose and Chicago,” they added. “Sub-1% growth markets include Boston, Minneapolis, Seattle, Los Angeles, Denver, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Atlanta, Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Sub-1.5% growth major markets include Washington, DC, Nashville, St. Louis, Philadelphia, San Diego, Oakland, Charlotte and Riverside. Sixty-nine markets had annual job growth rates above the not seasonally adjusted national average of 1.8%, the same as in December.”

Before you leap, check the data sources for changes.

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