Gateway markets are losing populations, but immigration is boosting the potential resident base in key destinations such as California, Texas, and Florida.
Departure levels in the Bay Area are the highest in the US, reported RealPage. Combined with nearby Oakland in the Census definitions, San Francisco saw a population decline of 3.7% between 2020 and 2023.
RealPage found that Los Angeles, San Jose, and New York suffered declines between 2.5% and 2.9% during that time frame.
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The Midwest was home to the other top 50 markets that suffered population losses of 1% or more since 2020.
Gateway market outliers were Boston, which had a population decline of just 0.3% between 2020 and 2023 and Washington, DC, which increased its resident base by 0.7% (close to the US average growth pace of 1%). Seattle's population was up by 0.4% in that period.
CBRE cited other factors affecting population trends such as the 1 million per year in legal immigration in 2022 and 2023, and the post-pandemic death rate, which has slowly moved back toward its long-term trendline.
"Still, overall population growth remains at just 38% of the 2010-2019 average and is unlikely to fully recover without higher birth rates," according to a CBRE report.
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