Online grocery sales are projected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.5% over the next five years, more than three-times faster than the 1.3% CAGR anticipated for in-store grocery sales during the same period.

Total online grocery sales—which includes delivery, pickup and ship-to-home—are projected to reach nearly $120B annual by the end of 2028, a 12.7% share of total grocery sales in the U.S., up 170 bps from the 2023 share, according to a new U.S. eGrocery Sales Forecast from Brick Meets Click.

Overall grocery sales in the U.S. are projected to grow at a CAGR of 1.6% through 2028, which is much slower than the 5.6% annual surge in sales during the five years ending in 2023, which was driven by the pandemic and then inflation.

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