First, the semi brighter side. Reuters recently surveyed 108 economists to see what they thought would happen with inflation and interest rates.

Of the nearly two-thirds of economists surveyed in May 7-13, 70 of 108, predicted the first reduction in the fed funds rate in September, to a 5.00%-5.25% range. Those results compared with just over half expecting a September cut when they were surveyed last month. Only 11 forecast a July cut and none said June, compared to 26 and four in the April survey.

September as the earliest? Yes, it makes sense with economic data as it has come in. During the press conference after the May 1 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, the part of the Federal Reserve that sets baseline interest rates, Chair Jerome Powell made a couple of statements that almost guaranteed September as being the earliest they might lower rates. He mentioned that the FOMC had been feeling more confidence and didn't want to change directions on a month or two of data, but that there had now been a solid quarter where inflation was getting hotter, which reduced their confidence on how things were proceeding.

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