The National Association for Business Economics released its latest survey of 43 professional forecasters. The respondents expect inflation to remain a "concern" throughout 2024.

The May forecast calls for inflation to remain elevated at 2.6%, half a percentage point higher than the forecast in the February 2024 survey, said NABE President Ellen Zentner, who is also Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist, in prepared remarks. "With the higher inflation expectations, panelists now anticipate the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee will cut rates by half a percentage point — down from three-quarters of a point and to occur later in the year than previously expected."

That would translate into two 25-basis point cuts. The measure of inflation in discussion is Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the benchmark that the Fed pays more attention to than the Consumer Price Index. "The yield on 10-year Treasury notes at the end of 2024 is forecasted to be 4.2%, up from 3.8% in the February outlook," Zentner added.

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