For the last two years, multifamily construction starts and permits have been slowing. Now the downturn has extended to single-family housing, writes RealPage Senior Real Estate Economist Chuck Ehmann. What that might mean is complicated.

RealPage looked at seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR), which means it's time to check for a caveat. Remember that seasonally adjusted rates mean someone is shifting actual data to account for how they think periodic forces and patterns might affect results. It's a normal strategy in economic analysis and can be useful, but risks missing changes in markets and events.

A GlobeSt.com review of seasonally-adjusted and non-seasonally-adjusted government multifamily housing start data shows the two to be very close. The same is true for multifamily permits, again using government data. For single-family permits and starts, non-seasonally-adjusted figures show more volatility than seasonally-adjusted, but the overall shifts seem similar. The approach seems reasonable.

Continue Reading for Free

Register and gain access to:

  • Breaking commercial real estate news and analysis, on-site and via our newsletters and custom alerts
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the property casualty insurance and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.