For years, economy watchers have kept an eye on the yield curve. Inversion — when a shorter-term Treasury yield runs higher than a longer-term one, typically the two-year and the 10-year — has long been considered a predictor of recession.

The 10-year and two-year inverted on July 5, 2022, setting a new record. But so far, no recession. This is one correlation whose failure at prognostication would be welcome at the moment.

It's been showing signs of reverting to normal. The two yields ended August 27, 2024, equal to 3.83%. On the 28th, the 10-year was one basis point above the 2-year, officially being a disinversion, however, on both the 29th and 30th, they were equal again. Then, September 3rd brought the two-year at 3.88%, four basis points above the 10-year's 3.84%. After, the 10-year over 2-year, was 3.77% over 3.76% on the 4th; 3.73% under 3.75%; on the 5th; and 3.72% over 3.66% on the 6th.