Assessing the overall health of the economy and its impact on the commercial real estate sector is all about perspective for John Chang, senior VP of research services at Marcus & Millichap. In a recent market update from the firm, Chang argued that although unemployment is up while job growth is down, and the overall level of unemployment is showing flashing signs of an impending recession, this month's Fed meeting should bring some respite to the consumer sector, and in turn, keep the commercial real estate sector relatively untouched.
"Even though the employment market is softening, we have to remember that it is moving from an overheating state to a more normal state." He said. "This is on target with the Fed's plan to control inflation by slowing the economy. By cutting rates in September, and possibly again in November and December, the Fed can level off the employment market and mitigate the risk of a recession."
The senior VP contends that the overall health of the economy, and its true impact on commercial real estate, can only be assessed when taking a long-term picture. Specifically, Chang argues that while the most recent unemployment rate of 4.2% is high for the last four years, unemployment remains below the 20-year average rate of 5.8%.
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