Maturity waves in commercial real estate loans are building, according to CRED iQ, which looked at securitized CRE loans, including CMBS conduit trusts, single-borrower large-loan securitizations, CRE collateralized loan obligations, and multifamily mortgages securitized through government-sponsored entities.
This year alone is scheduled to see about $277 billion in these loans mature, with another $163 billion maturing in 2026, so a total of $440 billion through 2026. Then it’s $129 billion in 2027, $181 billion in 2028, and $211 billion in 2029.
In September 2024, JLL estimated a $1.5 trillion maturity wall through 2025, while S&P Global Capital IQ expected $998 billion to hit maturity in 2025. The bulk of differences in estimates are likely due to different methodologies. JLL’s figure through the end of 2025 came out with more than a quarter left in 2024 — about 16 months total rather than 12 and figures not limited to securitized loans.
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S&P Global also looked at data from CoreLogic, aggregated it from 3.6 million CRE property mortgages from tax filings for 75% of U.S. counties. However, 60% of the mortgages missed a maturity date and so S&P Global had to use a regression model to estimate them.
The CRED iQ estimate would then be a securitization loan subset of the broader projections. One reason the estimate through 2025 is higher than 2026 is because of $36 billion worth of loan modifications lenders have made through the last three years. The coming 12 months “have the highest volume of scheduled maturities for securitized CRE loans over a period of 10 years ending 2034,” they wrote. The next highest expected level of securitized CRE debt will be $211 billion in 2029.
The CMBS portion of the loans will see $174 billion in maturity in 2025; in 2026, it will be $92 billion, $64 billion in 2027, $71 billion in 2028, and $85 billion in 2029. CRE CLO is projected to be $50 billion in 2025, $13 billion in 2026, almost $2 billion in 2027, $0.2 billion in 2028, and $0.1B in 2029. Freddie Mac will be $38 billion in 2025, $30 billion in 2026, $34 billion in 2027, $56 billion in 2028, and $54 billion in 2029. And then, Fannie Mae and Ginnie Mae together are expected to see $15 billion in 2025, $30 billion in 2026, $30 billion in 2027, $55 billion in 2028, and $72 billion in 2029.
Across 2025 and 2026, office properties represent $64 billion of maturing loans. Multifamily is $61 billion. Hotels will be $48 billion and industrial and retail each will have $42 billion.
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