As companies grapple with the tug-of-war between return-to-office (RTO) mandates and the growing demand for flexible work arrangements, the future of workplace norms remains uncertain. While major players like Amazon, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan push for stricter in-office policies, data suggests that hybrid and remote work models continue to dominate, with 68% of companies offering some form of flexibility. Amid fluctuating office attendance rates and evolving employee preferences, the question persists: can the traditional five-day office week make a full comeback, or has hybrid work solidified its place as the new standard?
Trepp sifted through available evidence to see if it could find an answer.
The firm noted that hybrid work seems to be winning for now, as employers increasingly worry about retaining talent in a competitive labor market. Companies fear that rigid mandates could alienate employees, pushing them toward more flexible competitors. Trepp also highlighted data from CBRE showing that office vacancy rates in Q4 2024 stood at 18.9%, slightly lower than the previous quarter but still elevated compared to pre-pandemic norms. While RTO announcements have coincided with some improvements in occupancy rates, Trepp cautioned that correlation does not necessarily imply causation.
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Adding further context to the state of office attendance, Placer.ai described the return to office in January as a “recovery still underway.” Their data revealed that office visits in 2024 were 34.3% below pre-COVID levels from 2019 but had risen 10% compared to 2023. Although Q4 2024 saw a temporary dip, Placer.ai speculated that Q1 2025 might bring a rebound based on historical trends, though they had yet to confirm this with prepared data. Fridays remained notably unpopular for in-office work among employees with remote privileges; only 12.3% of office visits occurred on Fridays in 2024—a slight decline from previous years and a significant departure from pre-pandemic patterns when Fridays accounted for 17.3% of weekday visits.
Trepp also pointed out that office owners and investors face challenges in adapting to these shifting dynamics. Buildings constructed in recent decades tend to fare better in terms of occupancy rates, with newer properties offering amenities, flexible floor plans, and tech-forward solutions attracting greater leasing demand. In New York City, Trepp’s analysis showed that buildings constructed in the 2020s had an average occupancy rate of 98.86%, compared to just 89.10% for those built in the 1930s or earlier.
Meanwhile, broader economic factors add complexity to the outlook for workplace norms. According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, February saw job cuts totaling 172,017—the highest monthly figure since July 2020—including over 62,000 layoffs announced by the federal government. How such economic turbulence might influence office attendance remains uncertain.
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