Businesses and stock traders alike have welcomed President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 90-day pause on tariff increases yesterday. However, this temporary reprieve has done little to alleviate the uncertainty surrounding the administration’s long-term trade strategy. The sweeping tariffs initially announced on April 2 remain a looming threat, with far-reaching implications for the U.S. economy and the commercial real estate industry. Plus, the 10% duty on most countries is staying in place, and China is being hit hard with an astronomical 125 percent rate.
If the tariffs under the 90-day pause are reinstated, their impact will ripple across every sector, particularly construction and real estate. The cost of construction materials, many of which are imported, has already risen, and further increases could exacerbate the situation. Economists warn that the trade war raises the likelihood of a recession, which would inevitably slow commercial real estate dealmaking and activity.
“It’s creating a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace,” Tim Bodner, U.S. real estate deals leader at PricewaterhouseCoopers, told The Business Journals. “It’s causing consumer confidence to decline, it’s causing concerns around where earnings and growth will be, it’s causing markets to decline, it’s causing corporate [capital expenditure] to potentially decline. It creates this dynamic in the overall market that people are going to wait and see what happens before moving forward.”
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Meanwhile, there is no dearth of theories about how these tariffs will ultimately affect commercial real estate. Hours before Trump announced the pause, Ermengarde Jabir, director of economic research at Moody’s Analytics, shared her analysis of how different property types and construction efforts might be impacted.
She emphasized that while tariff policies do not directly target commercial real estate, their indirect effects on supply and demand drivers are significant.
Jabir expects the pace of new construction projects to slow as developers grapple with rising raw material costs and borrowing expenses. This slowdown could benefit existing multifamily investors, as single-family housing starts—currently aligned with their long-term monthly average—are likely to decline.
“Lumber price increases will further exacerbate housing affordability challenges,” Jabir explained. “Households trying to enter the property market may rent for longer or shelve the prospect of buying for the time being. Thus, in a market with constrained supply and stable or growing demand, apartment rents will rise, and vacancy rates will drop, helping absorb much of the excess multifamily inventory completed over the past two years.”
The tariffs’ broader economic effects could also reshape other sectors within commercial real estate. Rising prices for essentials like food and energy are expected to cut into discretionary household budgets, leading to reduced spending on non-essential goods. This trend would particularly affect retail and industrial properties as brick-and-mortar and e-commerce merchants reassess their space needs in response to suppressed consumer demand.
Inventory management strategies may shift as businesses attempt to balance supply chain stability with weaker demand projections.
However, Jabir noted that certain property types could remain resilient amid these challenges. “Opportunities will likely remain strong for cold storage warehousing, distribution, and grocery-anchored retail—properties with demand tied to food-related essentials,” she said.
As businesses navigate this uncertain landscape, many adopt a cautious approach until clearer signals emerge from Washington. For now, Trump’s tariff pause offers only temporary relief while fundamental questions about trade policy remain unanswered.
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