Five years after COVID drastically changed work routines, employers from AT&T to Amazon are cracking down on remote work and calling employees back to the office. But ground-level data from early 2025 suggests that the office recovery may be losing momentum. Have return-to-office (RTO) trends normalized, or will we see additional changes in employee visit trends? And what are the wider implications of this unfolding RTO story for downtown areas nationwide and the industries that depend on office attendance?
Visits Appear to Stall
Recent Placer.ai Office Index data shows that despite the slew of new RTO mandates taking effect this year, office visits have begun to stall. In January and February 2025, the post-pandemic office visit gap widened to 37.8%, up from 34.3% in 2024.
This slowdown becomes more striking when viewed against the office sector’s typical seasonal pattern: Since 2022, office visits have consistently risen at the start of each year after the Q4 holiday dip, with January and February surpassing the previous year’s numbers.
But in 2025, January and February office visits declined 4.8% year over year (YoY). While other factors may be at play–including weather trends, the Los Angeles wildfires, and lapping last year’s elongated February 2024 – which included one additional workday – the data seems to indicate that new RTO mandates from employers have yet to materialize in increased office visits.
Regional Impacts
A closer look at YoY office visit trends across major business hubs suggests that regional weather-related disruptions may have significantly contributed to the slowdown. Wildfires in Los Angeles and polar vortexes reaching as far south as Texas likely deterred many workers from making commutes in LA, Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and even Washington, D.C. Meanwhile, cities with milder or more weather-hardy climates, such as Miami, San Francisco, Boston, and Chicago, actually saw modest increases or only slight YoY declines. San Francisco’s increase is particularly notable, as this market had been a laggard compared to other markets due to population migration out of the city and flexible RTO mandates from many of the technology-focused employers in the region.
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These regional differences suggest that at least some of the early 2025 lull was due to transient events. Still, even accounting for the weather, the magnitude of the lull suggests that – though it is too soon to determine definitively – the pace of RTO is likely tapering off.
Fewer Busy Days: Bustling Tuesdays & Friday Doldrums
The enduring popularity of the TGIF work week – which sees many remote-capable employees concentrate visits midweek and work from home on Fridays – provides further evidence that the RTO may be leveling off.
Although overall office recovery levels vary markedly among major U.S. cities, with NYC at the forefront and San Francisco and Chicago taking up the rear, all share a similar weekday pattern. In 2024, midweek saw greater recovery across all 11 analyzed cities, while Fridays – and to a lesser extent Mondays – lagged significantly behind.
This uniformity suggests that though employers continue to push for more days in the office, hybrid work has become deeply ingrained – so even if attendance picks up again, it will likely remain focused around a smaller set of midweek days. And the effects of this shift will continue to extend far beyond the office, reshaping everything from the rhythms of downtown life to local businesses that cater to office crowds.
Impacts Beyond the Office
Indeed, data shows that the new hybrid reality is having tangible effects on a wide range of industries.
Fast-Casual Lunchtime Lag
Fast-casual restaurants, for example – perennial office favorites – have seen slower traffic recovery on Fridays than on Mondays through Thursdays – with visits especially slow to rebound during the workplace-driven lunchtime daypart. Compared to 2019, overall visits to fast-casual chains rose 9.6% overall on Mondays through Thursdays, and 5.7% on Fridays. But between 11:00 AM and 2:00 PM, Monday through Thursday, traffic increased just 1.5% and actually dropped 1.1% on Fridays.
A Business Attire Comeback?
Hybrid work routines and shifting norms around office attire have also reshaped the apparel landscape. Over the past five years, traditional workwear brands such as LOFT, Jos. A. Bank Clothiers, Ann Taylor, and Brooks Brothers have seen visits decline, reflecting fewer in-office days and more relaxed dress codes. Meanwhile, the soft pants revolution has helped propel athleisure brands such as Lululemon Athletica, Athleta, Alo Yoga, Fabletics, and Beyond Yoga to steady gains.
Nevertheless, recent data hints at a modest uptick for business attire demand. Although post-COVID store closures led to a significant year-over-five-year decline in overall visits to these business attire retailers, the average number of visits to their remaining locations has inched up by 1.7% – suggesting renewed interest in office wear could be on the horizon.
Hybrid Ahead
So has the RTO hit a wall, or will offices continue to fill up in 2025? Early 2025 office visitation trends appear to indicate a stalled market – though whether additional mandates will spur renewed visit growth remains to be seen. Either way, one thing appears certain: Hybrid work, with its far reaching effects on everything from downtown life to commercial real estate, restaurants, and retail, is here to stay.
R.J. Hottovy is Head of Analytical Research at Placer.ai.
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