Between 2017 and 2022, approximately 30,000 New Yorkers relocated to Florida’s Palm Beach and Miami-Dade counties, bringing with them a total income estimated at $9.2 billion. Historically, New York City has been a magnet for talent and opportunity, but recent shifts in migration patterns are showing that the future may not replicate past growth trends, according to a report from the nonprofit Citizen Budget Commission (CBC).
Both in and out-migration have been significantly impacted by the pandemic, immigration, affordability concerns, quality of life issues and work opportunities, according to the report. The city was already experiencing a population decline that started in 2017 — then the pandemic exacerbated the issue, causing it to plummet by nearly half a million residents between April 2020 and July 2022. More recently, the population has rebounded by 120,000 residents, but whether that trend will continue remains to be seen, said CBC.
In addition to the pandemic-driven out-migration from the city, the population fell between 2017 and 2021 due to a tighter immigration policy that limited international in-migration. Growth since 2022 has been partly due to a reversal of that trend, as a surge of migrants and asylum seekers moved into New York City. With President Trump back in office, international immigration may dampen once again.
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Meanwhile, domestic net out-migration slowed to its lowest level since 2015 between 2023 and 2024. During the pandemic, out-migration accelerated among white New Yorkers, households with incomes in the top 40 percent, and millennials. But these groups have started to return to pre-COVID levels, said CBC.
Those who do leave the city typically stay in the region, heading to suburbs on Long Island and Westchester as well as to nearby states including New Jersey, Connecticut and Pennsylvania. People who move further are typically going to Florida, California and Texas, according to the report.
“The people leaving New York City may be choosing a place offering them a higher value proposition through a better mix of quality of life and cost of living,” said CBC. “Notably, Florida and Texas have lower taxes. While New Jersey and the rest of New York State have relatively high taxes—even if lower than New York City—they apparently offer amenities making the choice to leave worth it for some.”
CBC said the net loss of working- and middle-class residents is likely due to affordability issues and the challenges of raising a family in the city. High taxes may be pushing higher-income households, which pay a disproportionate amount of state and city taxes, to move away, said the report.
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Kristen Smithberg
Kristen Smithberg is a Colorado-based freelance writer who covers commercial real estate, insurance, benefits and retirement topics for BenefitsPRO and other industry publications.
