LightBox has released its Monthly CRE Activity Index for April, offering what it called “the first market-wide signal of transaction activity in the weeks following the sweeping Trump tariff announcements that shook financial markets and raised fears of a slowdown.”
It showed that CRE activity rose slightly in April, but at a slower pace than in prior months, reflecting continuing deal flow but growing caution among investors and lenders, the report said.
The index is intended to measure national activity across commercial property listings, environmental due diligence, and appraisals—key functions that support CRE transactions and collectively serve as a leading indicator of deal activity. It offers a barometer of broad industry shifts in response to changes in market conditions.
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The April index of 109 was a slight improvement from 107.9 in March, but a notable deceleration from February, when it rose 15%, and March, when it climbed to 8%. That indicates that CRE activity is still continuing, though with a more disciplined and selective approach.
On the positive side, commercial property listings rose 3% from March and 48% year-over-year as more inventory came to market. Phase 1 environmental assessments, usually conducted before CRE deals are approved, were flat month-over-month but 12% higher compared to the year before. Lender-driven commercial appraisal orders rose 4% from March and 5% over the year, indicating that demand for valuations continued ahead of transactions and refinancing. The report noted, however, that it was unclear how much of this momentum had built up before April.
On the negative side, GDP fell by 0.3% in the first quarter, as consumer confidence dropped for a fifth month to its lowest level since the pandemic, and lenders’ sentiment weakened.
Nevertheless, the report saw no signs of systemic slowdown in the CRE market. “The data behind the Index isn’t showing signs of contagion in deal flow,” it stated.
“While the pace has cooled, deal activity continues across asset types and geographies. CMBS issuance has picked up, insurers are reentering the lending market, and institutional capital is being deployed—especially into distressed opportunities. Buyers remain active, but more selective, and lenders are increasingly focused on refinancing opportunities and portfolio optimization.”
The report noted that loan modifications climbed to $39.3 billion above their year-ago level of $21.1 billion, indicating that “extend and pretend” is continuing. It said this was a strong sign that lenders and borrowers are collaborating on extending maturities instead of forcing resolutions.
Many market participants continue to expect a drop in Fed rates. Meanwhile, investors are concentrating on sectors with durable fundamentals, such as industrial, multifamily, data centers and select retail, though this varies by region and sub-asset class. There is also greater competition for well-located, income-producing assets, especially in metros with limited supply.
“Far from retreating, the market is recalibrating – proceeding with more discipline, not less activity,” the report commented. “For now, CRE remains a surprisingly steady harbor in choppy economic waters.”
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