Rent performance in apartment markets that have surpassed peak supply volumes for the current cycle is influenced by when the market hit peak supply and how high the supply wave was at the summit, according to a RealPage analysis.
Nine of the nation’s largest 50 apartment markets hit annual supply peaks at least two years ago, between 2020 and 2023. Five of those markets saw more modest inventory growth of 2.5% or below at their summit, including San Francisco, Baltimore, Chicago, Boston and Oakland. Among these cities, most have seen moderate rent growth return, as of April, with price increases ahead of the U.S. average of 1%, according to RealPage.
Meanwhile, markets that had an early but a sizable peak of more than 3% are experiencing regionally variable rent growth performance. This includes Kansas City, Portland, Richmond and Salt Lake City. West region markets like Portland and Salt Lake City are still working through supply volumes and are now showing rent growth behind the U.S. average. The only market to see early supply peaks that is still seeing rent cuts, as of April, is Salt Lake City, which had one of the largest nationwide supply peaks at 6.8% in the second half of 2023.
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Markets that experienced modest peaks in 2024 and are still logging rent growth include Pittsburgh, Virginia Beach, Cincinnati, Sacramento, St. Louis and Las Vegas. In most of those markets, price gains registered ahead of the national average in April 2025, according to the report.
Finally, markets that had sizable peaks in 2024 are largely seeing rent cuts or negligible gains as of April.
Several are expected to hit peak supply this year with gains of between 1% and 2%. These markets include Cleveland, Detroit, Memphis, New York, Washington, D.C., and Milwaukee. Most of these markets were showing above-average annual rent growth in April, except Memphis, where the 1.4% inventory growth peak is roughly double the volume this market typically sees, said RealPage.
“Notable markets still waiting for supply peaks include extreme inventory growth markets Austin, Charlotte, Phoenix, San Antonio and Dallas,” said RealPage. “These markets will add roughly 5% to 10% to total inventory at their peaks. All of these markets were still seeing deep rent cuts as of April.”
Anaheim is the only market slated to see a supply peak beyond 2025 that is still seeing notable rent growth, the report said.
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Kristen Smithberg
Kristen Smithberg is a Colorado-based freelance writer who covers commercial real estate, insurance, benefits and retirement topics for BenefitsPRO and other industry publications.
