The second, the mobile-app era of 2008 to 2019, spurred 31 million square feet of growth in the office market, with vacancy falling from 16% to 4%.
However, the end of both eras resulted in a surplus of office space for rent as business conditions changed.

CBRE sees possible parallels to those upsurges in the current moment, though with a note of caution. “We’ve assumed the AI era will generate 50% to 75% of the mobile-app era’s office space growth,” CBRE stated. “AI companies are also likely to achieve greater workforce efficiency by using AI and widening the geographic distribution of workers, resulting in more conservative San Francisco office leasing.”

At the same time, it noted, the infusion of venture capital into the AI sector tends to drive increased leasing activity because of stepped-up employee hiring and more demand for office space. “AI companies spend considerable capital on computing capability, their people are typically in the office four or more days per week, often requiring dedicated workstations,” the report commented.

Venture capital has certainly been busy. AI companies in San Francisco have received $103 billion in VC capital since 2020 – more than was invested in the two previous tech booms combined. Of the $239 billion in VC funding for AI companies across the U.S. between 1Q 2020 and 1Q 2025, 43% went to San Francisco and 28% to other parts of the Bay Area.

If the AI boom pans out, San Francisco’s current office vacancy rate of 35.8% in 1Q 2025 could be slashed by half to 16 million square feet by 2030, provided AI-related companies move in and other companies maintain their current occupancy levels.

“If the AI industry catalyzes broader growth among office-using companies, vacancy could further decline. On the other hand, if the AI boom proves to be less robust than anticipated, San Francisco will need more time to reduce its historically large supply of office space,” the report commented.