Commercial real estate markets are experiencing notable volatility, particularly in multifamily permitting trends across major U.S. metros, according to RealPage Senior Real Estate Economist Chuck Ehmann. Among the top 10 metros for multifamily permits in the year ending April, four markets stood out not for their absolute numbers, but for the dramatic shifts in their year-over-year permit activity. Most notably, Austin saw 12,344 permitted units, a sharp 39.1% decline from the previous year; Orlando, by contrast, permitted 11,862 units, surging 57.9% higher. Phoenix and Atlanta followed with 11,568 units (-33.7%) and 11,430 units (-21.3%), respectively. The spread between Austin and Atlanta in total permitted units was just 914, but the real story is found in the wildly divergent percentage changes—far more pronounced than seen a year ago.

The remainder of the top ten included New York (28,895 units, up 2.1%), Dallas (15,474, up 0.7%), Houston (13,636, up 3%), Los Angeles (8,610, down 31.5%), Columbus (8,060, up 21.6%), and Washington, D.C. (7,868, down 36.5%). While it is unclear why RealPage singled out the four clustered metros highlighted above, their starkly different trajectories underscore the current instability in the sector. This volatility comes on the heels of years marked by record-high multifamily construction, suggesting that a significant recalibration in development activity was inevitable.

For CRE investors and developers, the rapid market shifts present new complexities in planning and decision-making. While the industry is accustomed to cycles, the speed and unpredictability of these changes are unusual, complicating investment, development, and operational strategies for the foreseeable future.