The uptick in median rent was below the level of national inflation over the past six years, meaning shelter inflation is likely to be lower in the months ahead. Over the past six years, there have been only nine metros where rent growth has outpaced overall inflation: Pittsburgh, Tampa, Miami, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Sacramento, New York, Jacksonville and St. Louis.

However, the report cautioned that the 50% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum imposed by the President could drive up rents in several cities that have recently seen the most rapid growth in permitted multifamily construction, which makes them especially vulnerable to rising construction costs. They include Milwaukee, Oklahoma City, Cleveland, Memphis and Columbus. All but Columbus experienced year-over-year rent drops.

“These rising material costs are expected to place additional upward pressure on rents, as developers may slow construction or pass higher expenses on to tenants,” the report noted, though it might take time for the added costs to be reflected in rents.

The Trump administration’s visa restrictions on international students are expected to affect markets with high concentrations of foreign learners. These areas include San Jose, Miami, Boston, Seattle, and Orlando. A drop-off in foreign student arrivals could reduce rental demand, increase vacancy rates and put downward pressure on rents. In all the cities named, except San Jose, signs of falling rents have already appeared, the report said.

In addition, it noted, “A decline in international student enrollment could weaken the global and even domestic talent pipeline feeding into high-growth industries and potentially soften rental demand in these markets.”

The effect of the firing of federal workers in cities with high concentrations of civil servants is harder to gauge. In May, rents rose 1.3% year-over-year in Washington, DC and 0.3% in Baltimore, but fell sharply in San Diego, Virginia Beach and Oklahoma City, all of which have significant numbers of federal employees.

“These divergent trends highlight several factors—including conflicting forces of federal job reductions and return-to-office mandates—affecting the rental market in these areas,” the report stated.