A decrease in mall traffic across all formats in June could be related to demand normalization following a tariff-driven spring shopping spree.
According to Placer.ai’s mall index, June year-over-year shopping center traffic fell slightly for the second month in a row. Indoor malls continued to show the strongest resistance, with a year-over-year drop of only 0.7%. Open-air shopping centers and outlet malls experienced year-over-year declines in visits of 1.6% and 4.4%, respectively.
“The course reversal may suggest that the visit growth in April and May was at least partially driven by a pull-forward of consumer demand in anticipation of tariff-driven price hikes,” said the report. “By June, many of those purchases had likely already been made, and the resulting downturn in mall visits might represent a natural normalization of traffic rather than a new weakness in consumer demand.”
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Broader annual trends for the first half show shopping centers generally exceeding last year's visit levels, with average visit duration also on the rise. While visit quantity and quality are generally not yet back to pre-COVID levels, the data suggest that the recovery story is still being written, according to the report.
Despite the June slowdown, first-half shopping center traffic was generally positive, with indoor malls leading the pack. Year-over-year visits to indoor malls were up 1.8% while open-air shopping centers saw visits grow 0.6% year-over-year and outlet mall traffic was relatively flat at negative 0.8% growth.
Visit duration improved across all formats during the first half. Placer.ai said this suggests mall visit quality is improving. Indoor malls also led in this category, with dwell time increasing by 3.3%.
Open-air shopping centers continue to be the only format to exceed pre-pandemic levels, with visits up 0.3% compared with the first half of 2019. The average visit duration has recovered more closely to 2019 levels at indoor malls, which could mean that visit quality is improving at indoor malls faster than visit quantity, according to the report.
Quarterly visit data also points to the visitation success of open-air shopping centers and the recent comeback of indoor malls, said Placer.ai. Open-air shopping centers are the only type of mall where visits consistently met or exceeded pre-pandemic levels over the past two years. Second-quarter visits were 2.7% higher than the second quarter of 2019.
Indoor malls have narrowed the gap significantly during the past quarter, with Q2 visits only 1.1% lower than Q2 2019 levels, marking their strongest performance since 2020, said the report.
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Kristen Smithberg
Kristen Smithberg is a Colorado-based freelance writer who covers commercial real estate, insurance, benefits and retirement topics for BenefitsPRO and other industry publications.
