After years of warning signs—rising interest rates, refinancing hurdles, looming maturity waves and persistent bid-ask gaps—the multifamily real estate market may finally be reaching a tipping point. According to data from Trepp, the multifamily sector is poised to become a “key hunting ground for acquisition opportunities,” signaling that widespread distressed sales could soon become a reality in the world of apartment units.
Thomas Taylor, senior manager of research at Trepp, noted in his analysis that a staggering $120 billion in multifamily loans is set to mature over the next 18 months. These loans, all maturing before 2027, have in-place debt service coverage ratios below 1.20x. Taylor noted that multifamily loans make up the largest share of this “strained” group, underscoring their potential as prime targets for acquisition.
The purpose of Trepp’s analysis is to pinpoint properties ripe for acquisition—whether they are valuable assets in need of an exit strategy or stable but over-leveraged properties requiring fresh capital. A significant portion of these multifamily loans are tied to interest rates below 6% and have DSCRs under 1.20x, a combination that makes refinancing at par highly uncertain unless new equity is injected or net operating income improves substantially. Trepp’s research suggests that opportunistic investors could find discounts in both categories, “even in otherwise strong markets.”
Recommended For You
Trepp’s report divides the country into nine regions, each with its own unique characteristics. In the South Atlantic—covering states like Florida, Georgia, and Virginia—$9.4 billion in securitized multifamily debt is maturing, with nearly 70% carrying a current debt yield under 7%. More than $1.6 billion of that total features both interest rates below 6% and DSCRs under 1.20x, making refinancing especially challenging for those borrowers.
The Pacific region, which includes California and Washington, remains relatively stable with $4.6 billion in upcoming maturities, mostly comprised of legacy low-rate loans. Of that, $1.4 billion is priced under 6%, and roughly 90% has debt yields below 10%. However, Trepp observed that cap rates have “widened meaningfully” in markets like Los Angeles and the Bay Area, putting pressure on already thin margins.
In the Middle Atlantic, $2.4 billion in multifamily loans are set to mature, with just over 14% yielding double-digit debt—often a sign of impaired value or operational strain. Regulatory challenges are also a concern, particularly in New York, where a proposed rent freeze has become a focal point of mayoral campaigns, particularly for Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani.
The West South Central region, which includes Texas and Oklahoma, faces $6.7 billion in maturing securitized loans. About $1.2 billion of these loans have in-place coupons below 6%. The Mountain region, spanning states like Arizona and Colorado, has $2.5 billion in loans, with pockets of safer properties and more than $109 million in loans boasting debt yields above 15%, indicating healthy leverage or strong cash flow.
Finally, the East South Central region—including Alabama and Kentucky—has the smallest exposure, with $1.05 billion in maturing loans, but like the Mountain region, it contains concentrated areas of safer debt.
Trepp did not provide comparable data for New England, West North Central, or East North Central regions.
© Touchpoint Markets, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more inforrmation visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
