RealPage has updated its multifamily outlook through Q2 2026, based on economic uncertainty and inflation trends, coupled with a decreasing apartment supply. The firm now forecasts national effective rent growth of 2.3%, with widely varying performance among the top 50 markets.
San Jose and Pittsburgh are the only two markets expected to see rent growth above 4%, while just over a quarter of regions are expected to see rent gains of between 3% and 3.9%. Forty percent of markets are expected to post rent growth in the 2% to 2.9% range, and the remaining 26% will see growth of only 0.1% to 1.8, RealPage forecasts.
Meanwhile, Denver and San Antonio are the only markets expected to see rent declines over the next year, although the downturns are expected to be less than 1%, according to RealPage.
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The updated outlook follows a fresh round of uncertainty during the second quarter, driven by reciprocal tariffs with several major trading partners. The move put additional pressure on the Federal Reserve, which may have delayed expected rate cuts until later this year.
Meanwhile, inflation trends have been somewhat uneven, said RealPage. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose only two basis points in March, but climbed 11 bps and 14 bps, respectively, in April and May. PCE was 2.3% in May, slightly below where it ended in 2024, but still above the Fed’s 2% target.
Despite these headwinds, the labor market has performed better than expected, said RealPage. The U.S. economy added 449,000 jobs between April and June, representing 13% year-over-year growth. However, job creation is down 21% compared to the first half of 2024, and the economy has added approximately 1.8 million jobs over the past 12 months, down from 2 million the previous year.
Across the country, national apartment supply is expected to slow over the next 12 months; however, more than 100,000 new units are scheduled for delivery in five key markets. New York is expected to lead total delivery volume with 25,266 units, followed by Phoenix with 23,508 units, Newark with 21,019, Dallas with 18,635 and Los Angeles with 15,540.
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Kristen Smithberg
Kristen Smithberg is a Colorado-based freelance writer who covers commercial real estate, insurance, benefits and retirement topics for BenefitsPRO and other industry publications.
