For the first time in at least 30 years, the Atlanta metro area has lost more residents than it gained during the 12 months ended in mid-2024, according to U.S. census data analyzed by The Wall Street Journal. Although the net loss of domestic migrants was a modest 1,330 people, it marks a significant moment for the market that has been a growth magnet for years, the report said.
The report highlighted other signs Atlanta is losing its edge, including weaker hiring among local employers and higher-than-average office vacancies. Other Sunbelt metros, including Phoenix and Tampa, are showing similar sluggishness as surging housing costs and traffic frustration are pushing many people to choose smaller, cheaper cities instead.
Atlanta became the nation's eighth-largest metro area by increasing its population tenfold to 6.3 million across 29 counties since 1950. During the five years prior to the pandemic, the region averaged a net gain of about 33,000 domestic newcomers, driven by housing and job opportunities that appealed to people, especially from northern cities.
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The Atlanta region is still growing overall because births outnumber deaths there and international immigration was strong before President Trump took office again, according to the report. However, its slowing domestic migration could impact its appeal for companies looking for a large pool of skilled workers, said CBRE’s Mark Seeley, who advises companies on corporate relocation.
The report noted that Atlanta's housing market hasn’t kept up with population growth for the past two decades. In the 1990s and 2000s, the region's housing stock grew by about 3% per year, but that fell to 1.1% in the 2010s and 0.6% between 2020 and 2023. The story is the same in other Sunbelt cities like Phoenix and Dallas, the report said.
Despite a post-pandemic apartment construction boom in the city, single-family home-building remained well below levels seen during growth spurts in prior decades, according to John Burns Research and Consulting.
“Here is the challenge that everybody recognizes, we need to build more houses,” said Mike Alexander, chief operating officer for the Atlanta Regional Commission, a local planning agency.
Newer data from the Bank of America Institute shows that seven of the eight biggest Sunbelt metros, including Atlanta, posted net losses of domestic movers during the first quarter. Census data suggest that smaller regions in the South are picking up the slack. Bolstered by favorable cost-of-living metrics, markets like Huntsville, Alabama, Wilmington, North Carolina and Chattanooga, Tennessee, are all running ahead of pre-Covid trends, said The Wall Street Journal.
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Kristen Smithberg
Kristen Smithberg is a Colorado-based freelance writer who covers commercial real estate, insurance, benefits and retirement topics for BenefitsPRO and other industry publications.
