National single-family rents are still rising, but the story in early 2026 is less about growth and more about divergence. Beneath a modest national gain, regional gaps are widening, higher-end homes are outperforming, and once-hot Sun Belt markets are losing momentum.
Single-family rents increased 1.3% year over year in March, according to Cotality, a pace that continues to trail both pre-pandemic norms and last year's levels. The slowdown is especially pronounced at the lower end of the market, where rent growth fell to 0.7%, down sharply from 2.1% in March 2025. Higher-end rentals are holding up better, with rents rising 2.1%, though that too is a step down from 3.2% a year ago.
That split reflects a broader affordability squeeze. Lower-income renters are increasingly constrained, limiting landlords' ability to push rents, while higher-income households continue to absorb increases—albeit at a slower rate. For investors, it reinforces the ongoing shift toward higher-quality portfolios and build-to-rent communities targeting more resilient tenant bases.
Even so, there are early signs that rent growth may be stabilizing. "Although rent growth remained subdued in March — with growth now at about one-third of its pre-pandemic pace and well below last year's levels — month-over-month trends indicate some near-term strengthening, as rents rose 1.0% in March, outpacing the typical seasonal increase," said Cotality Senior Principal Economist Molly Boesel in prepared comments.
That monthly uptick suggests demand has not disappeared, but rather reset. For operators, the environment is less about rapid rent expansion and more about occupancy, retention, and incremental pricing power.
Regional Divergence Sharpens
The national average masks significant variation across major metros, with Midwest and Northeast markets leading growth while much of the South and Sun Belt cools.
Chicago posted the strongest annual gain at 4.9%, with median rents reaching $2,738. Philadelphia followed closely at 4.7%, though at a much lower median rent of $1,652, highlighting relative affordability even amid strong growth. New York also remained firm, with rents up 3.2% to a median of $4,108.
These markets are benefiting from more constrained supply pipelines and steadier demand fundamentals. In contrast to the construction-heavy Sun Belt, limited new inventory in legacy markets is helping support rent growth even as the broader market slows.
Detroit, with 2.9% growth and a median rent of $1,912, continues to reflect a middle-ground dynamic—moderate growth paired with relatively accessible pricing. Atlanta and Washington, D.C., meanwhile, have cooled significantly, posting gains of just 0.9% and 0.6%, respectively, suggesting that even historically strong rental markets are losing pricing momentum.
Sun Belt Loses Steam
Texas and Florida markets illustrate how quickly conditions have shifted. Dallas and Houston were effectively flat, with year-over-year growth of just 0.1% and 0.02%, respectively. Both markets saw stronger performance last year, particularly Houston, which had nearly 2.0% growth in 2025.
The sharp deceleration points to the impact of elevated supply. Over the past several years, aggressive development pipelines across the Sun Belt have caught up with demand, limiting landlords' ability to raise rents.
Miami presents an even clearer reversal. After posting roughly 1.2% growth in March 2025, rents declined about 0.6% this year, with a median rent of $2,956. The shift underscores how formerly overheated pandemic-era migration markets are normalizing, and in some cases overshooting into mild contraction.
For commercial real estate investors, this reset raises questions about near-term rent growth assumptions in high-supply markets and reinforces the importance of underwriting to more conservative projections.
Declines Persist But Begin to Narrow
Rent growth slowed in 70% of large metros, but outright declines became less widespread in March. Of the 16 markets that did see rent drops, 10 were located in Florida, with Arizona accounting for two.
Los Angeles stood out with a 1.2% decline, representing a steep 710-basis-point swing from the previous year. Median rents remain elevated at $3,842, and the drop is less a sign of weakening demand than a normalization following sharp increases tied to post-2025 wildfire disruptions.
This pattern—fewer declines but weaker growth overall—suggests the market is moving toward equilibrium rather than entering a broad downturn. Renters are pushing back on affordability limits, while supply and demand are gradually rebalancing.
For the single-family rental sector, the takeaway is a period of transition. The era of rapid, across-the-board rent gains has given way to a more fragmented landscape where performance depends heavily on geography, product type, and local supply dynamics.
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