Across multifamily, commercial real estate, and construction loans, banks' net lending in the second quarter increased by more than $100 billion from a year earlier.

Is the US economy on a roll? Sentiment in the commercial real estate market – as well as the direction of underwriting standards – suggests exactly that. The data does not.

The default rate across banks' multifamily and commercial real estate mortgages declined to 1.6 percent in the first quarter. In the case of the former, the default rate is now at its lowest point since before the financial crisis and recession.

Nearly five years into the current expansion, history suggests many of today's originations will mature in recession.

Does the economy need more Fed support? If the objective is creating jobs, the recent ineffectiveness of monetary policy is at issue.

The most recent data evinces a shift in apartment underwriting.

The industry outlook for the economy has turned bullish. But perceptions of a recovery in jobs have only modest support in the data. It's not just a matter of time; the structural problems with our labor market won't solve themselves.

Barring an uncontrolled shock, the outlook for the US economy is modestly positive. After two years of underperforming versus potential, growth will quicken to just short of 3.0 percent during 2014 and 2015.