Construction Curve Heading South but Analysts Differ on How Far South

Charlotte area’s construction pace is slowing in both the commercial and residential sectors, but analysts differ on how steep a decline the markets will experience.

For example, F.W. Dodge, McGraw Hill, the New York research house, feels a five-year drop for all commercial construction categories could exceed 19%, and the total annual value of construction in the region will dip to $3.4 billion in 2004.

Dodge projects the value of single-family home starts will drop by 9.5% by year end to an estimated $2.05 billion, from last year’s $2.27 billion. By 2004, that decline could reach 27.7%, or $1.6 billion in new starts.

Karnes Research Co. of Atlanta agrees the record levels of growth commercial and residential developments have been experiencing can’t be expected to continue. That argument, however is no reason to expect the market won’t continue to have solid growth, Karnes predicts.